The feared scenario has unfolded: crude oil prices have surged to within striking distance of the $100 mark—what comes next?

Crude oil prices have witnessed a sharp spike driven by renewed hostilities between the US and Iran and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude has crossed the $96 threshold, raising concerns about a potential surge in global inflation.

Global crude oil prices have soared amidst renewed attacks involving the US and Iran. Brent crude prices have reached $96.28 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stands at $91.48 per barrel—levels dangerously close to the psychological $100-per-barrel mark.

On Friday, the final trading day of the week, Brent futures rose by 76 cents (0.8%), while WTI gained 18 cents (0.2%). Over the week, Brent saw a 7.6% increase and WTI rose by nearly 10%—marking the largest weekly gains since mid-July.

This surge in crude oil prices follows the resumption of military skirmishes between the US and Iran. According to US Central Command, the US military launched a major retaliatory strike against three Iranian crude oil tankers following ballistic missile attacks on US Navy warships (including aircraft carriers and destroyers).

Crisis on Shipping Routes

This latest conflict has occurred in the immediate vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. Approximately 20% to 25% of the world’s total crude oil supply passes through this strait. Attacks on oil tankers in the region have created significant uncertainty regarding the safety of merchant and commercial vessels.

Consequently, there has been a sharp decline in the number of commodity vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to disruptions in the global oil supply chain. Additionally, ‘war-risk insurance premiums’ and freight rates for vessels passing through this region have surged manifold, significantly driving up the landed cost of crude oil.

Prices on the Rise

Earlier this week, oil prices hit a six-week high. On September 3, the price of Brent crude reached approximately $97.29 per barrel, while WTI crude rose to around $93.04 per barrel. These price hikes were driven by supply concerns stemming from potential new US actions against Iran and escalating threats in the Middle East.

Will Petrol and Diesel Prices Rise?

The surge in crude oil prices in the international market is highly likely to directly impact petrol and diesel prices in India. For now, state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) have provided relief to the public by keeping retail petrol and diesel prices unchanged across the country today, September 6, 2026. However, if the military standoff between the US and Iran drags on and Brent crude crosses the $100-per-barrel mark, fuel prices could rise in the near future; this is because India imports approximately 85% of its crude oil requirements. Rising global oil prices would force India to spend more on imports.