Personal Finance: Can the 15×15×15 SIP Rule Really Help You Build a ₹1 Crore Corpus?

The 15×15×15 SIP rule is often promoted as a simple and effective way to create long-term wealth. At first glance, it sounds appealing and easy to follow—invest ₹15,000 every month for 15 years and assume an annual return of 15 percent. Based on this calculation, investors are told they can accumulate a fund of around ₹1 crore by the end of the investment period. However, when examined closely, this rule may not be as practical or realistic as it appears.

What Is the 15×15×15 SIP Rule?

The idea behind the 15×15×15 SIP rule is straightforward. An investor commits to investing ₹15,000 per month through a Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) for 15 years. The calculation assumes that equity markets will deliver a consistent annual return of 15 percent over the entire period. If everything goes according to this assumption, the final corpus can reach close to ₹1 crore.

Because of its simplicity, many first-time investors are attracted to this formula. Financial experts often cite it as an easy thumb rule for goal-based investing. However, the challenge lies in the assumptions used to arrive at this number.

Is a 15 Percent Annual Return Realistic?

One of the biggest concerns with the 15×15×15 SIP rule is the expectation of a steady 15 percent annual return over a long period. In reality, equity markets are volatile and returns vary significantly from year to year. Market ups and downs, economic cycles, global events, and domestic factors all influence returns.

Historical data shows that achieving a consistent 15 percent compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over 15 years is rare. When long-term returns of broader equity indices such as the Nifty 500 are analyzed, the picture changes considerably. Over the past two decades, periods where returns exceeded 15 percent CAGR accounted for only about 10–11 percent of the time. In nearly 40 percent of the periods, returns were below 12 percent.

This clearly indicates that expecting 15 percent annual returns for 15 consecutive years may not be practical for most investors.

What Returns Do Equity Mutual Funds Actually Deliver?

On average, diversified equity mutual funds have delivered annual returns of around 11 to 13 percent over long investment horizons. If we assume a more realistic return of 12 percent instead of 15 percent, the outcome changes significantly.

With a monthly SIP of ₹15,000 over 15 years at a 12 percent annual return, the final corpus would be approximately ₹75 lakh. This means the investor would fall short of the ₹1 crore target by nearly ₹25 lakh. While ₹75 lakh is still a substantial amount, it highlights the risk of relying on overly optimistic return assumptions.

Can Small-Cap and Mid-Cap Funds Fill the Gap?

Some investors believe that if large-cap or diversified equity funds cannot deliver 15 percent returns, small-cap or mid-cap funds might. While these funds do have the potential to generate higher returns, they also come with higher volatility and risk.

Long-term data suggests that small-cap indices have delivered returns above 15 percent in only about 25 percent of the time over a 20-year period. In nearly half of the periods, returns were below 12 percent. Mid-cap funds have performed slightly better, but even they have not delivered consistently high returns year after year.

Relying solely on small-cap or mid-cap funds to achieve aggressive return targets can expose investors to sharp market corrections and emotional stress.

The Hidden Risk of Chasing High Returns

One of the biggest dangers of the 15×15×15 SIP rule is that it encourages investors to chase high returns. When actual returns fall short of expectations, investors often panic. Some stop their SIPs altogether, while others frequently switch between funds in search of better performance. In many cases, investors sell their units during market downturns, locking in losses instead of staying invested.

Such behavior can seriously harm long-term wealth creation and defeat the very purpose of disciplined investing.

A More Practical Approach to SIP Investing

Financial experts suggest a more balanced and realistic strategy. Instead of focusing on a fixed rule like 15×15×15, investors should start SIPs based on their income, expenses, and financial goals. A more achievable return expectation of around 11–12 percent per year is considered reasonable for long-term equity investments.

Additionally, increasing the SIP amount gradually every year—through a step-up SIP—can make a significant difference over time. As income grows, even a 5–10 percent annual increase in investment can help investors build a much larger corpus without relying on unrealistic return assumptions.

The Bottom Line

The 15×15×15 SIP rule may look attractive on paper, but it oversimplifies the realities of equity investing. Markets do not deliver uniform returns, and expecting a consistent 15 percent annual growth for 15 years is optimistic. A disciplined investment approach, realistic return expectations, and regular increases in SIP contributions are far more effective strategies for long-term wealth creation.

Instead of chasing a formula, investors should focus on consistency, patience, and aligning investments with their financial capacity and goals. Over time, this approach is more likely to deliver sustainable and meaningful results.