Gold Outlook: Gold at ₹1.53 lakh—will it cross the ₹1.60 lakh mark? Find out what the future trend might look like..

Gold Outlook: Gold witnessed a recovery on Thursday, September 3. The metal found support due to a weaker dollar and easing concerns over inflation linked to rising crude oil prices. In early trading, COMEX gold futures rose 1.30% to reach $4,472.10 per ounce. Meanwhile, gold futures also saw gains on India's commodity exchange, MCX.

**Rally in MCX Gold**

On MCX, gold futures climbed 1.05% (or ₹1,595) to trade at ₹1,53,997 per 10 grams. Analysts state that the ₹1.60 lakh per 10 grams level is now crucial for MCX gold futures. Meanwhile, with the US Federal Reserve meeting approaching, investors are keeping a close watch on the Fed's decision.

**The ₹1.60 Lakh Level is Crucial**

According to Nripendra Yadav, Senior Research Analyst at Bonanza, the ₹1.60 lakh per 10 grams level is significant for MCX gold. He noted that following the recent rally and subsequent correction, the ₹1.60 lakh mark could be considered a breakout level. If gold sustains itself above the ₹1.60 lakh mark, it would indicate that the recent correction was primarily driven by profit-booking.

**Gold Could Rise to ₹1.65 Lakh**

If gold holds above the ₹1.60 lakh level, it could pave the way for a rise to ₹1.65–1.70 lakh. Yadav said, "Previous technical assessments also identified the ₹1.58–1.60 lakh range as a breakout zone. This implies that ₹1.65–1.70 lakh could be the next potential target. In the event of a decline, gold would find key support at the ₹1.52–1.50 lakh level."

**Central Bank Buying Supports Gold**

Yadav noted that whenever gold experiences a breakout, confirmation is essential; however, this is not currently evident at existing levels. Nevertheless, central banks across various countries are purchasing gold, supporting it. Goldman Sachs estimates that central banks are buying approximately 50 tonnes of gold per month in 2026 and has projected gold prices to reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of the year.

**Impact of Geopolitical Tensions on Gold**

Persistent geopolitical tensions are also lending support to gold, which is considered a premier safe-haven investment. For Indian investors, the value of the rupee is a significant factor; even if gold undergoes consolidation in the international market, a weakening rupee could provide support to MCX gold prices.

**Investors Eye Federal Reserve's Decision**

Yadav stated that the primary short-term risks for gold stem from the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding US interest rates, the dollar index, and bond yields. The Fed Chairman's recent stance indicates a tightening of US central bank policy, which has led to a surge in yields and a strengthening dollar. Consequently, gold may face downward pressure for some time.

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