Gold has become much cheaper! Down 18% from its January peak—will it set a new record in the new year?

Gold is trading 18% below its January all-time high. In January, gold crossed 170,000; today, it trades between 142,810 and 146,328.

Gold is now 18% cheaper than its peak earlier this year. According to the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), the price of 24-carat pure gold reached an all-time high of 176,121 rupees per 10 grams on January 30, 2026. Currently, the price stands at approximately 144,129 rupees per 10 grams—a decline of 18.16%.

Given the drop in gold prices—and the traditional trend of investing in precious metals like gold and silver during the festival of Dhanteras—this decline presents an excellent opportunity for investors to bet on gold. This raises the question: will gold fall further, or will it climb back to its January peak?

Will gold yield profits in the future?

Over the last 30 years, the price of gold has increased approximately 28.26 times. On Dhanteras in 1996, the price of 10 grams of 999-purity gold was around 5,100 rupees—meaning 10,000 rupees could buy about 1.96 grams of gold. By contrast, as of yesterday, November 5, the price of gold closed at 144,129 rupees per 10 grams. In other words, if you had invested ₹10,000 in gold back in 1996, your total wealth would have grown to ₹2,82,606 today.

Gold has also delivered exceptional returns over the last three years. In October 2025, the price of gold was ₹1,29,584 per 10 grams, which has now risen to ₹1,44,129. This translates to a direct gain of 11.22% over the past year. Meanwhile, in October 2024, the price of gold was just ₹78,745 per 10 grams; it has surged by 83.03% over two years—reflecting an average annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.29%.

Looking at the three-year return pattern (from 2023 to 2026), gold was priced at ₹60,240 in November 2023. Over three years, it has grown by 139.26%, meaning your initial investment has more than doubled. During this period, gold recorded an average annual growth rate of 33.75%.

Expert Forecast for Dhanteras 2027

According to the leading domestic brokerage firm Axis Securities, gold could see a robust recovery of 20% to 25% from its current lower levels by Dhanteras 2027. This could push prices in the domestic market back to the range of ₹1.65 lakh to ₹1.71 lakh per 10 grams.

Similarly, J.P. Global brokerage firms like Morgan and Goldman Sachs also believe that geopolitical uncertainties and sustained gold purchases by central banks will drive international prices up to $6,300 per ounce in the coming months, which will, in turn, trigger a significant rally in the Indian markets as well.