Gold and Silver Prices Rise Again: Will Bullion Touch Record Highs Soon? Experts Weigh In
Gold and silver prices saw a sharp rise on Monday, surprising investors despite a strong US dollar and the Federal Reserve’s firm stance on interest rates. The renewed interest in bullion has raised a key question—could gold once again climb toward its record highs? Let’s explore the latest market trends and what experts are predicting.
Gold Prices Firm Up Despite Dollar Strength
On Monday (November 3), gold prices gained momentum both in the international and Indian markets. While a stronger dollar usually keeps gold under pressure, investors continued to show interest in the yellow metal amid economic uncertainty and global trade developments.
In the international market, spot gold rose 0.31% to $4,016.86 per ounce by 2:15 PM, while US gold futures for December delivery climbed 0.76% to $4,026 per ounce. However, gold still remains around 9% below its October 20 record high of $4,381.21 per ounce.
Kelvin Wong, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA, noted, “The strength of the dollar is currently limiting gold’s potential to make significant gains.”
Domestic Market Reflects the Global Trend
In India, the gold rally mirrored the international market. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold prices were up 0.51% at ₹1,21,845 per 10 grams by 2:18 PM. Silver also gained 0.65%, trading at ₹1,49,213 per kilogram.
In the open market, 24-carat gold was priced at ₹1,23,170 per 10 grams, 22-carat at ₹1,12,900 per 10 grams, and 18-carat at ₹92,380 per 10 grams. In Delhi, silver stood at ₹154 per gram, or ₹1,54,000 per kilogram.
Fed’s Policy Keeps Investors Cautious
The US Federal Reserve’s recent comments have kept investors on their toes. After cutting interest rates twice this year, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated limited room for further rate reductions. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of another rate cut in December has dropped from 90% to 71%.
Typically, gold prices surge when interest rates are low or when economic uncertainty rises. However, with bond yields remaining high and investors more willing to take risks, gold’s upside has been somewhat restrained.
US-China Trade Deal Boosts Market Sentiment
Market sentiment also improved after a recent trade agreement between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Both nations agreed to reduce tariffs—America cut import duties from 57% to 47%, while China promised to boost soybean imports and rare-earth exports.
Additionally, China’s decision to remove the 6% VAT exemption on gold sales could lift local gold prices slightly while reducing demand to some extent.
Demand Patterns: Investment Up, Jewelry Down
According to the World Gold Council, gold investment demand continues to grow. In the third quarter alone, gold ETFs saw inflows of 222 tonnes, while demand for bars and coins remained above 300 tonnes. Central banks also increased gold purchases by 28% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 220 tonnes.
However, jewelry demand has fallen for the sixth consecutive quarter, slipping to 371 tonnes, as high prices deter retail buyers.
Expert Outlook: Limited Movement Expected
Analysts at Augmont Goldtech believe gold will trade within a narrow range of $3,920–$4,060 per ounce (₹1.19–1.22 lakh per 10 grams), while silver is expected to fluctuate between $46–$49 per ounce (₹1.41–1.45 lakh per kilogram).
If prices break out of these ranges, a 3–5% movement could occur in either direction. Traders are now eyeing upcoming US ADP employment data and the ISM PMI report, which could determine the future path of both the economy and monetary policy.
Conclusion
While gold and silver prices have strengthened this week, experts believe the metals may remain range-bound in the short term. The interplay between the US dollar, Fed policy, and global trade developments will continue to drive volatility. Investors are advised to stay cautious, track inflation trends, and watch for key economic signals before making major investment decisions.
