Gold and Silver Prices Dip: Why Precious Metals are Under Pressure and What Experts Predict

Gold and silver prices in India have witnessed a continuous decline for three consecutive days, raising questions among investors about the stability of the precious metals market. However, experts suggest this short-term dip might precede a strong rally, citing major economic triggers on the horizon that could shift the price momentum at any moment.

As of Tuesday, November 18, 2025, the primary factor driving down the prices of both gold and silver has been the weakening expectation of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in December. This shift in sentiment, coupled with a stronger US dollar, has created significant bearish pressure on the commodities.

Understanding the Market Movement

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) in India, the price slump was pronounced:

• Gold (December Futures): The contract saw a sharp decline of ₹1,807, or 1.47%, settling at ₹1.21 lakh per 10 grams. The February 2026 contract tracked a similar drop, reaching ₹1.22 lakh.

• Silver (December Futures): Silver experienced an even steeper fall, dropping by ₹3,660, or 2.36%, to trade at ₹1.51 lakh per kilogram. The March 2026 contract also slipped to ₹1.54 lakh per kg.

According to Rahul Kalantri of Mehta Equities, the current weakness in precious metals is directly attributable to the receding hopes of an aggressive rate cut and the continued strength of the US Dollar, a key indicator often inversely correlated with gold prices.

Global Market Trends

The downward momentum was not exclusive to the domestic market. In the international arena, the trend was similar:

• Comex Gold (December): The global contract fell by 1.60% to $4,009.5 per ounce. This marks the fourth consecutive day of losses, totaling a significant decline of $204 over the last four trading sessions.

• Comex Silver: International silver prices decreased to $49.50 per ounce, down from the previous session's closing of $50.71.

Jigar Trivedi of Reliance Securities points out that the combination of dimming US rate cut expectations and a lack of major macro-economic data releases over the past six weeks has dampened market sentiment. Furthermore, recent statements from Fed officials, such as Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson, who indicated that aggressive rate cuts were not anticipated yet, have added to the market's current pressure.

Domestic Factors and Investor Behavior

While global dynamics are the main drivers, domestic factors also influence India's precious metals market.

• Soaring Imports: India's gold imports in October nearly tripled, reaching $14.72 billion. Total imports between April and October surged by 21% to $41.23 billion. This heavy inflow has significantly contributed to the country's record monthly trade deficit, which hit $41.68 billion.

• Post-Festival Demand Normalization: Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of IBJA, notes that after the strong festival-driven purchasing, the market is now returning to its regular demand pattern. She suggests that the current slight correction in gold, following a sharp rise, is healthy. She advises that investors with a stable long-term outlook can utilize this price correction as a gradual entry point into the market. Conversely, she observes that physical demand for silver remains inconsistent.

What’s Next? The Triggers to Watch

The market's immediate focus has shifted to upcoming crucial US economic data, which will provide fresh clues regarding the future trajectory of interest rates:

• Wednesday: Release of the US Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes.

• Thursday: Publication of the US Non-Farm Payroll data.

These reports are expected to clarify the Fed's stance. The market's probability of a rate cut in December has already plummeted to around 43%, down from 60% at the start of the month, which explains the persistent selling pressure on gold and silver.

📈 Expert Outlook: Medium-Term Support Remains Strong

Despite the short-term volatility and downward pressure, experts maintain that the medium-term outlook for gold and silver remains fundamentally strong. This positive long-term view is underpinned by three key factors:

1. Sustained Central Bank Buying: Central banks globally continue to be consistent net purchasers of gold, providing a reliable floor for prices.

2. Escalating Geopolitical Tensions: Rising geopolitical conflicts and instability worldwide invariably push investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.

3. Concerns Over US Debt: Increasing concerns regarding the rapidly growing US national debt are also seen as a long-term inflationary and destabilizing factor that supports precious metals.

These fundamental dynamics collectively create a robust background support, leading experts to anticipate that gold and silver prices are well-positioned to stabilize and likely resume their upward trajectory in the medium term. For silver specifically, some brokerages are optimistic, viewing the current softness as a buying opportunity, with projections suggesting prices could eventually climb as high as ₹1.90 lakh per kilogram.