Explained: Trump has announced tariffs, will the dream of developed India be shattered?

President Donald Trump of the world's most powerful country, America, has made it clear that from April 2, America is going to impose reciprocal tariffs on all countries around the world. This reciprocal tariff can be very harmful to India as well. Especially in India's economy. There is a reason for that too. America is India's second-largest trading partner. The bigger thing is that America is one of those countries for India, with which the country does not suffer losses in doing business.

This means that India's trade with America has always been surplus. In the financial year 2023-24, the trade between India and America had crossed $ 100 billion, even after that the trade of both countries remains above $ 80 billion. India exports more than $ 50 billion to America. In such a situation, you can understand that after all India's stake is more than that of America. India may have to bear more losses on this reciprocal tariff.

Some time ago a report from Citi Research also came out. It was said that if the reciprocal tariff is implemented, then India's GDP may suffer a loss of 0.50 percent on an annual basis. India has once again gone above 6 percent in the GDP figures of the third quarter. Also, the GDP estimate for the current financial year and the next financial year is seen above 6 percent. Trump will remain in power in America for 4 years. If this remains the case, then India's GDP is likely to suffer more from the reciprocal tariff. Let us also tell you how the country's GDP may suffer due to this announcement by Trump.

India's stake is higher.

If we look at the trading of both countries, then America is India's second-largest trading partner after China. In the year 2024, America was India's largest trading partner. In 2024, America's total commodity trade with India was estimated to be $ 129.2 billion. In 2024, India imported $41.8 billion from the US, which was 3.4 percent (1.4 billion dollars) more than in 2023. In 2024, India imported a total of $87.4 billion to the US, which was 4.5 percent (3.7 billion dollars) more than in 2023. In 2024, India had a surplus in US trade, the value of which was $45.7 billion. Talking about the financial year 2025, according to the latest data of the Ministry of Commerce, India's exports to the US in January 2025 increased by 39 percent to $8.44 billion. At the same time, imports also increased by 33.46 percent to $3.57 billion. The government has set a target of $500 billion for bilateral trade with the US by 2030.

India will suffer more losses.

India's share in this bilateral trade is being seen to be a bit higher. India's exports are almost double that of imports. Now when the US reciprocal tariff will be implemented on April 2, i.e. in the financial year 2026 according to India, then the country's exports or in other words, the US will impose the same tariff on the imports from India as India is imposing. In such a situation, the demand for Indian products may decrease and there may also be a decrease in exports. According to the report of Standard Chartered, there may be a decrease of 11 to 12 percent in the country's exports.

Loss of Rs 61 thousand crores

According to the report of Citi Research, about half a dozen sectors of India are expected to suffer huge losses. Analysts estimate that the sectors of India that are going to be most affected include chemicals, metal products, jewelry, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and food products. According to the report, India's export sector may suffer a loss of more than Rs 61 thousand crores on an annual basis. Now you can imagine how deep the impact of America's reciprocal tariff can be on India.

Estimated loss of 0.60 percent of GDP annually

After Trump's announcement, India's GDP is expected to suffer a huge loss on an annual basis. According to the report, if we look at the worst scenario of reciprocal tariffs, then India's GDP can suffer a major loss. This loss can be seen on an annual basis of 0.60 percent. The data of India's third quarter GDP that has come out is at 6.2 percent. It is estimated that India's growth can be at 6.2 percent in the current financial year. Similar estimates have also been made for the financial year 2026. The impact of Trump's tariff can be seen in the financial year 2026 and the coming years.

Trump has already called India the tariff king.

On the other hand, Trump's tariff policy regarding India is completely clear. Trump says that India is among the countries that impose the highest tariff. Trump has even called India a tariff king. In his speech today, Trump mentioned India's tariff. He also said that India imposes a tax of up to 150 percent on American products. In such a situation, India may also have to face the same tariff.

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