Big News! Crude oil prices slide 8% in the global market; Brent crude nears $104.

Iran has presented certain conditions to the United States and Israel; if these are accepted, the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened for maritime traffic.

Today, Tuesday, November 3, crude oil prices have seen a sharp decline of 8%. Brent crude has fallen to the $104.50 level, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has also dropped significantly, reaching $96.11. Ongoing negotiations between Iran, the U.S., and Israel—mediated by Qatar—have raised hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has granted the government special authority to advance peace talks. Meanwhile, a positive shift has also been observed in the stance of U.S. Vice President JD Vance regarding the negotiations.

U.S. President Donald Trump has described the talks as positive, but has also warned that if no agreement is reached, Iran could face major military strikes following the U.S. midterm elections on November 3.

News of diplomatic talks moving in the right direction has led to an 8% drop in global crude oil prices, as investors anticipate a return to normal oil supplies.

U.S. launches fresh attacks today.

It is unlikely that this decline in crude oil prices will be sustained, as the U.S. launched attacks today—amidst the ongoing midterm election voting—on Iran’s Qeshm Island and surrounding areas. Meanwhile, Iran has reacted sharply to this attack, threatening a strong retaliation. Following this latest strike by the United States, there is a high probability that crude oil prices in the global market will surge once again.

What will be the impact on India?

India imports 85% to 88% of its crude oil requirements; consequently, any volatility in the international market directly affects the Indian economy and the pockets of ordinary citizens.

Given that Qeshm Island is situated right at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, the risk—following these US strikes—that Iran might completely block this route or launch retaliatory attacks on oil tankers from Saudi Arabia and the UAE passing through the area has increased significantly. Approximately 20% of the world's crude oil passes through this route.

Experts believe that if this situation persists, the price of Brent crude could exceed $120 to $125 per barrel. This could lead to an increase in petrol and diesel prices in India, which in turn would drive up transportation costs and fuel inflation.